Manchester development plan /December 2022 Page 1 of 9
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WELCOME
Welcome to our 2022 Manchester development plan in which we share our planned actions to release
network capacity to facilitate our stakeholders’ major planned developments in the Manchester area.
Manchester has seen an increase of over 40% in population since 2000, combined with its employment
growth being much higher than national levels during the last decade. In October 2022 at their Green
Summit, the Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA) highlighted its commitment to support
the acceleration of the region’s decarbonisation to meet its 2038 target.
As highlighted in our 2022 Distribution Future Electricity Scenarios (DFES), there are significant
uncertainties around how the cost of living crisis will affect our customers in the ways they use
electricity for heating and other needs. However, we expect that the electrification of transport and
heating will continue across our region. This is based not only on the increased attractiveness of these
technologies but also on feedback from our stakeholders including GMCA and its Local Area Energy
Planning (LAEP) studies. Through stakeholder engagement, we have also identified high certainty
around a number of major planned developments in and around the Manchester council area. These
developments have strong UK and local government support and secure funding so are highly likely to
proceed.
Following the methodology in our Network Development Plan (NDP), we have used our DFES forecasts
to identify capacity shortfalls at one of the eight bulk supply point (BSP) substations (typ. 132/33kV) and
at five of the over 25 primary substations (typ. 33/11 or 6.6kV) around Manchester. Following our
‘flexibility first’ approach we share our flexibility requirements with stakeholders in tenders.
We have only proceeded with the network reinforcement interventions described in this report where
we could not identify a more cost-efficient flexibility service provision. Through strategic interventions
of conventional network reinforcement, we have followed a more holistic approach that considers the
wider area demand growth, asset replacement based on asset condition and we have avoided
expensive piecemeal network expansion.
Our Manchester development plan includes:
• Two new primary substations in the south of Manchester, i.e. in the Mayfield regeneration area
and at the Southern Gateway.
• The installation of a third transformer at two primary substations in the eastern part of the region,
i.e. at Eastlands and Queen’s Park primary substations.
• The replacement of all transformers at Frederick Road BSP in Salford and the installation of three
new transformers and new 132kV circuits, and the replacement of the 33kV switchboard panels at
West Didsbury BSP.
Through the above interventions, we will release 190 MVA of network capacity across our 33, 11 and
6.6kV networks in the Manchester area. The majority of the network reinforcement work described in
this report is part of our RIIO-ED2 business plan for the 2023-2028 period. The business plan was
submitted in December 2021 and proposes the lowest
cost impact on energy bills per customer compared to all other
distribution network operators (DNOs) across GB.
We hope you find this document useful and informative. If you have
any comments or feedback, please contact us at
development.plans@enwl.co.uk.
Steve Cox,
Distribution System Operation (DSO) Director
December 2022
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1 FACILITATING STAKEHOLDER PLANS INCLUDING LOCAL AREA ENERGY
PLANS (LAEP)
1.1 Our role to facilitate stakeholder plans
As the North West’s electricity distributor, we need to provide the network capacity required to
facilitate the decarbonisation needs and other plans of our stakeholders and customers. As part of our
distribution system operation (DSO) load-related investment, we need to optimise this process in terms
of reducing costs, mitigating risks and maximising benefits to our stakeholders and customers.
The DSO process we follow to release network capacity where and when needed is shown in the
following flowchart. Information and data from stakeholders on their decarbonisation and other plans
is a direct input to our Distribution Future Electricity Scenarios (DFES). Forecasts for electricity demand,
distributed generation and battery storage from the DFES are then used in network impact assessments
to establish network needs. Future capacity needs across the network are presented in our NDP
workbook, which shows that even with much higher volumes of electric vehicles (EVs) and heat pumps
across our region, the majority of our networks have enough capacity to facilitate these.
Stakeholder engagement as part of Electricity North West’s DSO load-related investment cycle
For all parts of the network where a capacity need is identified, we apply our ’flexibility first’ approach.
This means that we aim to release capacity using flexible services in all cases where this is more
efficient than conventional reinforcement. Our latest flexibility service requirements are published in
our autumn 2022 tender and give our stakeholders the opportunity to enter the local energy market.
We proceed with conventional network reinforcement only in cases where flexible services are not
available to release the required capacity, or they come at a higher cost. In our Manchester
development plan, and more widely in our network development plan (NDP), we carry out strategic
network interventions. This means that we focus on the electricity demand growth across wider areas,
Manchester development plan /December 2022 Page 4 of 9
focusing on avoiding expensive piecemeal network expansion while not foreclosing the region’s
transition to net zero.
It should be noted that the sooner we can enter information and data from our stakeholders on their
plans, the sooner we can embed this into our load-related investment process to release network
capacity that facilitates their plans.
1.2 Our role to facilitate Local Area Energy Plans
GMCA is one of the first local authorities in the UK to carry out studies to inform its Local Area Energy
Plans (LAEPs). The LAEPs are part of the region’s transition to meet net zero by 2038.
The way that our DSO load-related investment process interacts with LAEPs is shown in the following
flowchart, which is a modification of the flowchart presented in the previous subsection but tailored to
LAEPs. Action plans from GMCA LAEPs will be a direct input to our DFES and our annual load-related
investment cycles. At the same time, information on network investment costs, insights on available
network capacity and local energy market opportunities will be provided by our DSO team to support
LAEPs.
More information on our role to facilitate LAEPs will be presented in our DFES 2022 which we expect to
publish in December 2022.
Our DSO load-related investment process as part of facilitating Local Area Energy Plans (LAEPs)
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1.3 Stakeholder engagement for the Manchester network development plan
In line with our load-related investment cycle, our Manchester development plan includes conventional
reinforcement projects around the region for capacity requirements that cannot be met through cost-
efficient flexible services.
Our development plan presents interventions required at higher voltage substations (132 to 33kV
network) that are driven by major developments in and around the Manchester city area. The table
below shows the major developments driving electricity demand growth and consequent
reinforcement requirements.
Major planned developments in the Manchester area
Wider development area
Description of major developments
Manchester Eastern
Gateway
Development and regeneration corridor spanning from NOMA district,
Queen’s Park, Ancoats, Central Retail Park, New Islington and
Eastlands.
15,000 homes at Northern Gateway and 3,000 homes at Eastlands
between 2022-2032. Development of over a million square feet of
commercial space and Etihad campus (sports, retail and arena).
Additional demand of around 45 MVA during RIIO ED2 (2023-2028).
Manchester Central and
Southern Gateway
High growth area around the University of Manchester, Oxford Road
corridor and science park.
Additional demand of around 30 MVA during RIIO ED2 and five MVA
post-RIIO ED2.
Mayfield regeneration
University of Manchester north campus redevelopment programme.
Approved strategic regeneration framework for the Mayfield area. HS2
government backed national infrastructure scheme.
Additional demand of around 25 MVA during RIIO ED2 and five MVA
post-RIIO ED2.
However, it should be noted that capacity requirements are also driven by other factors modelled in
our DFES including a large number of demand connection projects across our HV and LV networks, as
well as the expected impact from the electrification of transport and heating. The following table shows
our forecast.
Range of low carbon technology volumes in Greater Manchester from DFES 2022
Low carbon technology
Volumes in thousands
2022
2028
2033
EVs – all types of plug-ins for
cars and vans
12
237 to 430
(best view: 380)
534 to 938
(best view: 880)
Heat pumps – domestic
13
61 to 113
(best view: 72)
109 to 411
(best view: 151
Heat pumps – non-domestic
2
3 to 5
(best view: 3.7)
5 to 18
(best view: 5.5)
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2 OUR 2022 MANCHESTER DEVELOPMENT PLAN
Our Manchester development plan is part of our wider network development plan, where, as part of
our annual forecasting and planning cycle, we release network capacity where and when needed to
facilitate the plans of our stakeholders including LAEPs, decarbonisation plans and any other
developments.
The previous section described which major stakeholder plans around the Manchester area, and local
trends of electrification of transport and heating, are facilitated through our network development
plan. The following table shows the network reinforcement work that will release the capacity for these
major development areas.
This capacity will also facilitate the first stages of LAEPs, given that the EV and heat pump volumes from
our ‘best view’ scenario within the DFES 2022 have been considered in the network impact analysis. In
other words, the volumes of EVs and heat pumps shown in the previous section are not expected to
require additional reinforcement work across our 132 to 33kV network. Interventions on this part of
our network have a two to three year lead time compared to a lead time of a few months for
reinforcement work at lower voltages.
Sites requiring network reinforcement in the Manchester area
Site
Increase in firm
network capacity
(in MVA)
Date of capacity
release
Southern Gateway
23
FY25
Mayfield
regeneration
32
FY25
Queen’s Park
primary substation
19
FY25
Eastlands primary
substation
19
FY26
Frederick Road BSP
substation
69
FY28
West Didsbury BSP
substation
22
FY28
Blackfriars
5
FY28
To facilitate the needs of the Manchester Eastern Gateway development area we will increase the firm
capacity at Eastlands and Queen’s Park primary substations. This will be achieved mainly by the
addition of a third primary substation transformer at both sites. For the Mayfield development area, we
will install a new primary substation. We will also take the same approach for Manchester’s Central and
Southern Gateway development areas, where the new Southern Gateway primary substation will be
installed. For the housing and commercial developments around Salford we will increase the Blackfriars
primary substation capacity through the overlaying of 33kV cable from Frederick Road BSP substation.
Beyond the additional capacity provided through interventions at primary substations, we will release
additional capacity on our 33kV networks. For the Salford area this will be achieved through the
replacement of existing transformers at our Frederick Road BSP substation, where three new
transformers and new 132kV circuits will be installed. To support the Southern Gateway developments,
Manchester development plan /December 2022 Page 7 of 9
we will replace ten 33kV panels at the switchboard of West Didsbury BSP that supplies the new
Southern Gateway primary substation.
As described in our latest network development plan, our DFES 2021 peak demand forecasts show that
we will exceed capacity for all Manchester network reinforcement projects before FY28. Furthermore,
we have not received any offers for flexibility through our latest tenders that could cover our
requirements for these areas. Our latest DFES 2022 forecasts (to be published December 2022) show
that only the Blackfriars site will not exceed capacity by FY28. However, given that based on historical
FY22 demand we have a small capacity headroom at Blackfriars primary substation and the accepted
demand connections in the substation’s feeding area have three times more capacity than this
headroom, there is a real risk that demand could exceed capacity before FY28.
Locations of network reinforcement sites in our Manchester development plan
As with all our plans, we have submitted engineering justification papers (EJPs) for the projects in our
Manchester development plan to our regulator Ofgem. These explain in detail through cost benefit
analysis (CBA) that the interventions are the most cost-efficient options to facilitate the region’s
transition to net zero and release capacity for our stakeholders’ plans. We have also published these
EJPs as part of our RIIO-ED2 business plan for 2023-2028, which helps our stakeholders to better
understand our assumptions and the details behind our proposed interventions.
Frederick Rd (BSP)
Blackfriars
Queens Park
(Northern Gateway)
Eastlands
Mayfield
Southern
Gateway
West Didsbury (BSP)
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